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Simple Time Management Skills Generalized
By Burt Cotton
Time skills are simple. The problem is all of us are different, and each of us has to learn which skill works best for us. Often when we fail, we feel discouraged, depressed, stressed, and our confidence is affected.
Failure is a state of mind however, and can be resolved rather quickly. It only takes a minute to screw up something, but it can take a lifetime to restore it. Therefore, simplicity is a state of mind we want to cultivate to manage our time wisely, as well as avoiding generalizing.
Let’s take a look a few tips to get us started on thinking simple, and then we can move forward to time while avoiding over generalizing our plans. Keeping it simple is the process of thinking smart. If you are constantly worrying, your time is wasted, since worry does not resolve anything. Simple is more defined as free from all the elements that contaminate our minds. Elements such as guile and vanity: Simple is more of a humble attitude that holds a modest position in life.
This
Our articles continue...
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Updated gold silver watchTom updated the gold silver watch.
<p>
Volatility has increased, esp. in the FX and commodities.
</p>
<p>
Check out the graphs .. dollar vs oil (expect the next bang here, but in
the opposite direction).
</p>
<p>
Gold still looks pretty good in EUR and GBP.
</p>
<p>
<a
href="http://gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_EUR.html">gold.approximity.com/since1999/Gold_EUR.html</a>
</p>
<p>
<a
href="http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html">gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html</a>
</p>
Mysites reviews on mashabletags: desktop, mashable, multimedia, mysites, review, web
<p>
<a
href="http://mashable.com/2008/09/25/mysites/">mashable.com/2008/09/25/mysites/</a>
</p>
Nice post by John Carter in the XP-ML.One of my favourite authors at the moment is Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
<p>
So he mostly speaks about finance, because that’s what he knows, but
underneath he is mostly talking about statistics and risk. And that is what
we all deal with.
</p>
<p>
His previous book "The Black Swan" in some senses wasn’t
very useful… it can be abbreviated as "We are really Bad at
prediction, much worse than you believe."
</p>
<p>
His latest essay is actually quite handy. It provides a map of where we are
going to be startlingly Bad at predicting.
</p>
<p>
<a
href="http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html">www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb08/taleb08_index.html</a>
</p>
<p>
Many Agilisto’s will say, "Yip, he is right, thats why our
practices work".
</p>
<p>
Others may look at Taleb’s essay and get an "Aha!" moment
and finally realize why some of the Agile practices work.
</p>
<p>
He suggests you divide problems on the basis of moments of a random
variable.
</p>
<p>
If your decision is a "yes/no" choice, it is simple. Will the
project be finished by the 5th of December 2008?
</p>
<p>
If your question is based on the value of a random variable, it is more
complex. What will be the completion date of the project?
</p>
<p>
If your question is based on a higher moment of a random variable, it is
very complex. What will be the ROI of a project?
</p>
<p>
Then look at the nature of the randomness… Is it fat tailed, or well
behaved?
</p>
<p>
For non-statistical types a probability distribution can be fat or thin
tailed. The one you learned about in the stats course you have mostly
forgotten was a thin tailed one. (Gauss / Normal distribution).
</p>
<p>
Odds on if you did any stats course they went on for hours about thin
tailed distributions, because they can do the mathematics for them.
</p>
<p>
Unfortunately most real world distributions are fat tailed.
</p>
<p>
If you have a 1000 guys in the company, the average weight of employees is
simply not going to shift by much if you employ the fattest guy in the
world. (Fat guys come from a thin tail probability distribution.)
</p>
<p>
If you look at a 1000 random project case studies, the average project
overrun is going to massively shift if you add the worlds largest project
overrun.
</p>
<p>
ie. Things like food requirements for project workers are random variables
from what Taleb calls "mediocristan".
</p>
<p>
Things like time to completion are from "extremistan".
</p>
<p>
So if divide your problems in to quadrants like this.…
</p>
<pre>
Simple Payoffs | Complex (Higher Moment) payoffs
Thin tail distribution Predictable | Less predictable
Fat tail distribution Less predictable | You're utterly stuffed.
</pre>
<p>
Exercise for the Reader…
</p>
<p>
1) Catalogue the random variables in your work situation and categorise
them as from mediocristan or extremistan.
</p>
<p>
eg. Time to complete an item of work - Extremistan
</p>
<p>
Programmer Productivity - Very high variance, but probably Mediocristan.
</p>
<p>
Security Risks - Extremistan. (No valid distribution on attack models,
motivations etc.)
</p>
<p>
Exchange Rate fluctuations - Extremistan
</p>
<p>
Programmer Defect rates - Not sure. Maybe mediocristan for simple
monothreaded programs. …
</p>
Welcome in service hell!Imagine this .. I buy a mac mini online .. all goes well .. I get a
confirmation code and wait and wait an no parcel arrives .. then I login
and see the order is cancelled. Do you think they would bother to email or
call me to tell me that they cancelled the order? Thank you Apple.
Javascript, Flash and Facebook-API developers wantedMySites is growing its team. If you are interested as a freelancer or
pemanent, remote or onsite, drop Ramine an email ramine at mysit.es
<p>
MySites is a finish company, but the team comes from all over Europe.
</p>
<p>
Looking forward to hear from you,
</p>
<pre>
-A
</pre>
Wikipedia saturated<a href="http://oc-co.org/?p=124">oc-co.org/?p=124</a>
Mysites postingsThe original posting:
<p>
<a
href="http://startupmeme.com/watch-out-mobile-me-and-mesh-mysites-has-it-all-getting-more/">startupmeme.com/watch-out-mobile-me-and-mesh-mysites-has-it-all-getting-more/</a>
</p>
<p>
On digg:
</p>
<p>
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/58gx7m">tinyurl.com/58gx7m</a>
</p>
<p>
<a
href="http://www.reddit.com/comments/6um7x/mysites_the_hottest_finnish_invention_since_sauna/">www.reddit.com/comments/6um7x/mysites_the_hottest_finnish_invention_since_sauna/</a>
</p>
Adobe Flex developer wanted - remote or onsite Either as free lancer or permanently employed we need a Flex guru or an
advanced Flex developer that likes challenges.
<p>
We have several projects in New York and Munich.
</p>
<p>
A small international team in an agile setting is waiting for you
developing applications that scale to millions of users.
</p>
<p>
As usual, we care about experience, communication skills and simply the
desire to excel and not page-long CVs.
</p>
<p>
If interested, please email me at armin at personifi dot com. Please no
Word docs, only .txt or pdf or put it all in a simple email.
</p>
<p>
Next time we ask for some GNU Flex developers .. :-)
</p>
<p>
<img
src="http://www.approximity.com/~armin/BeerHelpsForRubyWorldDomination.jpg">
</p>
MySites versus the Facebook and Google App Engine<a
href="http://mysitesdevelopment.blogspot.com/2008/07/mysites-services-v-facebook-and-google.html">mysitesdevelopment.blogspot.com/2008/07/mysites-services-v-facebook-and-google.html</a>
new energy blog<a href="http://good.myupdat.es/">good.myupdat.es/</a>
Development BlogSome of the developers start posting goodies here :-).
<p>
<a
href="http://mysitesdevelopment.blogspot.com/">mysitesdevelopment.blogspot.com/</a>
</p>
Mysites -- launched!<img src="http://www.mysites.com/images/my_tllogo.png">
<p>
MySites is a single place for all your online needs. You can create and
customize a website, save and share any media, decide who can view it,
embed anywhere, and use any device.
</p>
<p>
Mysites is mostly rub (rack) and Javascript. Check it <a
href="http://www.mysites.com/">out</a>
</p>
<p>
I will try to get an interview with the developers in the next few days to
see what they learnt in the last two years of hard work.
</p>
Vimperator - gain back your timeThanks to Brenden for passing me this link.
<p>
<a href="http://vimperator.mozdev.org/">vimperator.mozdev.org/</a>
</p>
<p>
First there was a Navigator, then there was an Explorer. Later it was time
for a Konqueror. Now it’s time for an Imperator, the VIMperator :)
</p>
<p>
Vimperator is a free browser add-on for Firefox, which makes it look and
behave like the Vim text editor. It has similar key bindings, and you could
call it a modal web browser, as key bindings differ according to which mode
you are in.
</p>
<p>
Now I need vim bindings for openoffice, so that I stop typing :w.
</p>
Six Degrees of WikipediaEver heard of the game Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon? If you haven’t, it
works like this: Every actor gets a Kevin Bacon number. Kevin Bacon has a
Kevin Bacon number of 0, actors who were in a movie with Kevin Bacon get a
Kevin Bacon number of 1, actors who were in a movie with someone who has a
Kevin Bacon number 1 get a 2, and so on (Everybody always gets the smallest
number possible, so if you were in a film with two people, one with a 4 and
one with a 6, your Kevin Bacon number would be 5).
<p>
The same idea could apply to the articles Wikipedia. Instead of taking
"in the same film" as the relation, you can take "is linked
to by". We’ll call the "Kevin Bacon number" from one
article to another the "distance" between them. It’s then
possible to work out the "closeness" of an article in Wikipedia
as its average distance to any other article. I wanted to find the centre
of wikipedia, that is, the article that is closest to all other articles
(has minimum closeness).
</p>
<p>
<a href="http://www.netsoc.tcd.ie/~mu/wiki">www.netsoc.tcd.ie/~mu/wiki</a>
</p>
Dual mode busWhat do you get when you cross a bus with a train? A dual-mode vehicle that
has the versatility of a bus, the speed of light rail and fuel economy
vastly better than either.
<p>
Good wired article!
</p>
<p>
<a
href="http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/05/half-bus-half-t.html">blog.wired.com/cars/2008/05/half-bus-half-t.html</a>
</p>
<p>
<img src="http://blog.wired.com/cars/images/2008/05/27/dmv_graphic.jpg">
</p>
Thin -- a fast and simple ruby webserverI have not yet used it in production, but heard good things.
<p>
<a href="http://code.macournoyer.com/thin/">code.macournoyer.com/thin/</a>
</p>
The pulse of uncertaintyVery nice graph, well done!
<p>
<a
href="http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/01/05/business/20080106_soapbox_graphic.html">www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/01/05/business/20080106_soapbox_graphic.html</a>
</p>
Gold - towards the danger zone?Tom updated his analysis <a
href="http://gold.approximity.com/gold_analysis.html">gold.approximity.com/gold_analysis.html</a>
Vido of matz speaking at Google on ruby 1.9, Feb 20, 2008<a
href="http://www.rubyinside.com/matz-at-google-video-771.html">www.rubyinside.com/matz-at-google-video-771.html</a>
Erlang CookbookThe Erlang Cookbook is designed to be a good starting point for learning
about the language, the OTP platform, and fault tolerant programming. This
book was started as a way for me to document what I learned about the
Erlang programming language, best practices gleaned from reading the
newsgroups and mailing lists, and tips and tricks from the helpful
developers and scientists using Erlang.
<p>
I modeled this book on the nearly-completed Scheme Cookbook that I was
fortunate enough to have been part of developing.
</p>
<p>
This book (and the Scheme Cookbook itself) could not have been created
without the excellent templating system Anton van Straaten developed for
the Scheme Cookbook.
</p>
<p>
— BrentAFulgham - 20 Aug 2004
</p>
<p>
<a href="http://schemewiki.org/Erlang/TOC">schemewiki.org/Erlang/TOC</a>
</p>
is one definition, but other definitions define simple as lacking in knowledge and expertise or not socially or culturally sophisticated. So, to understand the fine line then between simple smart and simple stupid is the opening door to success. As a complex writer and thinker, I avoid generalizing also. This is a definitely sign of simple stupidity. Generalizing is a form of making irrational decisions based on one or more statistics. So therefore, we should not generalize or avoid complex issues when it comes to managing time. Keeping it simple helps us to stay alert of our situation. Keeping an open mind when it comes to planning and organizing can help us to achieve steps to our long-term goals. Simplicity makes a difference when a bad situation arises. If your mind is stressed, then you might or might not make a wise decision to resolving the problems. Therefore, when a problem develops, rather than stress, analyze the problem carefully to find a solution of resolve. Most problems are not as complicated as they may appear, so we can think sufficiently if we feel confident, knowing the issue is addressable. If we over generalize, it blocks our mind from seeing the main points that can terminate the problem, and these course of action wasted valuable time, and often leads to bigger problems. Do not put the cart before the horse in other words. When we train our minds to stay alert, and cultivate good traits that enforce our course in life, we are on a well-rounded road to success and our time is managed accordingly. If you have a problem with remembering your tasks, don’t be ashamed to post notes wherever you will see them daily. Even if your co-workers or spouse believes you are a slob, forget their illus ional state of mind, and focus on what works best for you by keeping it simple and adhering to an open mind. Article Source: http://www.articleblender.com Burt Cotton - www.time-management-guide.org
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Everyone has said this more than once in their lives! It could be that we become so engrossed in what we are doing that we loose track of time. We get so far behind that we never seem to catch up or Read more...
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